GSR, a crypto market maker, has revised its estimate of the likelihood of a spot Ether ETF approval in May to 20%. This represents a significant decrease from its earlier estimate in January, where it had placed the chances at 75%.
According to Brian Rudick, an analyst at GSR, the change in estimation is influenced by several factors. Rudick highlighted the lack of engagement from the SEC, potential political pressure against approving digital asset ETFs, and an ongoing investigation into whether Ether qualifies as a security. These factors collectively diminish the odds of approval.
Rudick also speculated that the approval process for spot Ether ETFs might extend well into 2025 or 2026, potentially involving litigation due to the complexities surrounding the regulatory environment.
In a notable shift, Rudick mentioned that some ETF applications have been amended to include Ether staking. While this could enhance the attractiveness of such ETFs, it also introduces additional complexities to the approval process. Rudick suggested that this move might either provoke a response from the SEC or indicate a concession to a delayed approval, potentially lowering the odds for May.
Similarly, Bloomberg ETF analysts have also adjusted their estimates, now placing the likelihood of a spot Ether ETF approval in May at 30%. This contrasts with their earlier projections, which were more optimistic, indicating a challenging regulatory landscape for Ether ETFs.
James Seyffart, a Bloomberg analyst, expressed growing pessimism, noting a lack of progress in the approval process as the deadline approaches. With little movement observed, optimism surrounding the approval of Ether ETFs seems to be waning.
Overall, both GSR and Bloomberg analysts paint a cautious picture regarding the prospects of a spot Ether ETF approval in May, highlighting regulatory uncertainties and the potential for prolonged approval processes.
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