France reviews Polymarket: changes ahead

🧐 France reviews Polymarket: changes ahead?

Plus: Could the US soon hold Bitcoin?

GM. No pulp fiction here – just the juiciest headlines, squeezed and served daily to keep your crypto thirst at bay.

⛔️ The French National Gambling Authority (ANJ) is considering a ban on Polymarket.

👀 Senator Cynthia Lummis posts a reminder about a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the US.

🍊 News drops: FTX’s Gary Wang asks for zero jail time, Elon Musk’s net worth increased by $20B + more

Divider

🍍 Market flavor today

The market’s hotter than a summer sidewalk 🌞 The Fear and Greed Index just cranked up to a 77, showing investors are feeling greedier than a kid in a candy store. Bitcoin smashed through the $76K barrier, setting new all-time highs and making HODLers do a happy dance 🕺

After BTC’s rise, Ethereum and the altcoin crew also started stepping into the spotlight. ETH has increased by nearly 25% since the start of 2024, and some analysts think it’s still got plenty of room to grow. Crypto trader Byzantine General chimed in with this take: “This massive open interest build-up contains a f*ck ton of shorts, and I think that ETH has a very real chance of going on a monster rally now.”

Besides, word is that with the new government in town, staking for spot ETH ETFs might get allowed – that means investors could hold ETH tokens and capitalize on their interest-bearing potential. No surprise, then, that ETH ETFs saw $52.3M in inflows yesterday.

Not to be outdone, BTC ETF inflows reached $621.9M. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas noted that BlackRock’s IBIT had its biggest trading day ever, with $4.1B changing hands. That’s more volume than big shots like Berkshire, Netflix, or Visa saw yesterday.

And as if this all wasn’t thrilling enough, the Fed is announcing today whether they’ll cut interest rates. Back in September, they surprised everyone with a 50 bps rate cut, kicking off a liquidity party that’s been great for risk assets like crypto. This time around, people are expecting a 25 bps cut, but who knows what Chairman Jerome Powell has up his sleeve?

With inflation cooling off this year, the Fed’s been focusing on boosting the labor market. But with Trump’s plans for tax cuts and loose fiscal policies – not to mention high import tariffs – inflation might get a second wind. That could force the Fed to keep rates higher for longer.

So, clearly, the market fireworks are just getting started. Don’t blink – you might miss something wild 🎇

Divider

✊ Vive la résistance!

France is known for a lot of amazing stuff – the Eiffel Tower, fine wine, fashion, romance… the list goes on and on. This is what you’d hear from someone who just found out France exists. The real ones know that this country is really famous for saying “non” to just about everything.

And we’re not talking about the French Revolution, either; protests still happen every 3-5 business days here. My recent personal fave: Parisians threatening to poop in the Seine before the Olympics to protest the river’s poor condition. Say whatever you want – only the French would have the balls to pull something like that.

Now, the latest resistance isn’t from the people – it’s actually from the government. And they’re targeting Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction platform.

The French National Gambling Authority (ANJ) apparently wants Polymarket out 😡 The plan? Block the domain name and put pressure on anyone helping it reach French users.

In theory, though, since Polymarket doesn’t require ID verification – only a crypto wallet – users could still access it through VPNs (for legal reasons, you didn’t hear that from me).

So, why the sudden crackdown? Well, the platform became super popular during the US election season, with $3.6B in bets on who’s gonna win. To put it into perspective, that’s like 3.6 billion baguettes.

And one top bettor was a French trader named Théo. He put $30M on Trump’s victory and cashed out $19M in profit. To put it into persp… jk, not going there again. Obviously, when the stakes are that high, the government wants to know what’s up.

Lawyer William O’Rorke commented that Polymarket’s basically like a sports bet, as people are putting money on random outcomes. And in France, gambling is tightly regulated – only licensed operators can legally offer stuff like sports bets, while games like roulette are completely banned.

As for when ANJ is gonna take action? I’d bet it’s gonna happen soon… or I actually can’t anymore?

👀 From promise to pump?

Casual day in politics: candidate makes big promises to get votes → wins → does whatever they want.

But you know what? We might see something different this time.

One of Trump’s promises – setting up a strategic Bitcoin reserve – might actually become a reality. Why am I saying this? Our girl, Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis, posted >>this bombshell<< right after Trump’s win was confirmed.

Lummis pitched the Bitcoin Act back in July, where she suggested the US should buy a million BTC (5% of the total supply) and hodl it until at least 2044.

And with more pro-crypto candidates landing seats in both the House and Senate than their anti-crypto counterparts, there’s hope that this bold proposal could make it through.

Sure, we’re still talking logistics: market volatility, regulatory roadblocks, impact on the US debt… so yeah, it’s not dropping tomorrow or next week either.

Let’s be patient. And next thing you know, the dollar symbol’s gonna have laser eyes.

📰 News drops

⚖️ FTX co-founder Gary Wang asked a US judge for zero jail time. Why? He was the star witness who helped lock up his former partner, Sam Bankman-Fried.

📈 Elon Musk, one of Donald Trump’s biggest supporters, saw his net worth rise by $20B after the election results came out. It now reaches $285.6B.

💭 Lawyer Jake Chervinsky thinks SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda could step in as the new Chair, replacing Gary Gensler. Meanwhile, he doesn’t see much chance of “crypto mom” Hester Peirce landing the role.

🚀 Arkham Intelligence launched its own perpetuals exchange. Trading starts in one week.

Divider