Polymarket detailed that “this market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if the Russian Federation detonates a nuclear device in an offensive capacity by Dec. 31, 2022, 11:59:59 p.m. ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to ‘No.’” It added that to meet the “Yes” criteria, the detonation of a nuclear device must be in an offensive capacity, must not be a test and must either be claimed by the Russian Federation or widely accepted to be from the Russian Federation.
