Recovery in bank stocks improved market sentiment on Monday.
Calm, and rally in bank stocks yesterday stabilized the market mood. Gold tipped a toe below $1950 per ounce, while the US 2-year yield flirted with the 4% mark – on bet that if the bank crisis is over, we could go back to our lives and worrying about inflation, again.
The S&P500 closed 0.17% up, while the rate-sensitive Nasdaq fell 0.74%.
Of course, if the banking stress further eases, we should see sovereign yields recover a part of the recent retreat.
Yet, the pricing of recession is now in play, and equity markets, which have been relatively resilient to the bank stress – partly due to higher liquidity injected in the market to deal with it, remain vulnerable – as earnings estimates will more likely than not revised lower in the foreseeable future.
In energy, crude oil jumped past the $70pb level on bank relief and a legal problem in Turkish export port.
In cryptocurrencies, the narrative switched from Bitcoin being a safe haven in the context of bank crisis to being on a shaky ground due to Binance trouble with CFTC.
Watch the full episode to find out more!
0:00 Intro
0:37 Banks rally
2:14 Gold, treasuries retreat
3:34 Higher yields could threaten stock valuations
5:41 Bitcoin narrative goes from safe to shaky
6:55 USD down, EUR up
8:05 Crude oil topside likely limited into $75/77pb
Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.
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#Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary
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Surprised the SPR isn't being refilled at these levels.
Yes.. but… Binance in this case is like a bank… it has nothing to do with Btc per se, it's a foreign, allegedly shaky exchange, that those of us who've been there long enough know they have done bad things with clients forever, if anything it goes to the narrative that centralized institutions are vulnerable the way Btc isn't. Where do you escape Binance to? the bank? To Btc…
Lagarde would sudoku if ECB does another increase despite bank crisis. Thank İpek, very insightful as always.
9:40 You were planning to say 'oil', not 'gold', right?
Another divergence has triggered between markets and fed, rate cuts being priced in. This smells opportunity and positioning for a good run .
Thank you princess for another great update like always.
banks deposits drop should be compared with overall cash availability, or on an indiividual basis. deposits are short term liabilities (stl). so, cash / stl is the max percentage of deposits a bank run can get.
I'm relieved to hear JPM made that oil prediction, like you said, 300 something before? haha. I figure we'll go from 70-90 something this year in oil, so I'm ok with that. They really go after these Crypto exchanges it seems! Everything seems so delicate, a few more geopolitical events and then inflation will be up again.
Think gold has run out of steam now that the banking crisis has subsided? Any other catalysts for upward momentum?
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لازارا بول نان تش باعت أكثر من %46 من حصتها في الاسواق الفرنسيه لـ بول سايس لارا هل هذه العملية ستؤثر سلباً أم ايجاباً على الاسواق الاوربيه علماً أن TSW يعتمد كثيراً على تعاملاته مع لازارا بول نان تش و كارما يول ونان بيد وهذه الشركات كلها في ركود من 2018
PPX هل هي القرار الصحيح للمستثمر الصغير