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In a series of posts shared on X, crypto analyst Kevin has mapped out a bullish scenario for Dogecoin and altcoins should the US Federal Reserve shift its monetary policy toward easing later this year. Pointing to both fundamental and technical indicators, Kevin contends that current Federal Reserve policies will define the exact moment altcoins begin to decisively outperform Bitcoin (BTC).
Dogecoin Season Depends On The Fed
In one of his updates, Kevin explained the crux of his position: “Everything is continuing to go exactly as planned. We never hopped on the #ALTSEASON bandwagon that the gurus have been pushing for 6-12 months that got people wrecked. I have continued to let my altcoins guidance be backed up by facts and fundamentals […] Based on all my evidence gathered I do still believe that between March-June we will see Powell come out and say that bank reserves have hit levels to where they feel it is necessary to end the run off of the balance sheet which in turn will end QT.”
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He further emphasized that this potential pause—and eventual reversal—of quantitative tightening (QT) should initiate a new cycle of rate cuts and broader financial easing. According to Kevin, that combined macro shift would signal the beginning of a sustained altcoin rally: “This will then start a new cycle of easing along with further rate cuts and the combination should mark the beginning of Altcoins out performance and BTC Dominance durably heading lower. That is my call based of Macro Fundamental and Technical analysis being combined into one form of Analysis.”
Digging deeper into market structure, Kevin forecasts a drop in Bitcoin dominance, a metric that measures BTC’s market capitalization relative to the entire crypto sector: “All the data I have been analyzing is telling me between March – June QT will end. Then altcoins durable out performance will begin and BTC Dominance will durably fall below 54.51%.”
He notes that inflation would need to “skyrocket” for the Federal Reserve to continue QT, a scenario he views as unlikely based on his research.
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Pointing to similarities between current market conditions and 2019, Kevin also explores a somewhat unconventional approach—performing technical analysis (TA) on the Fed’s balance sheet itself: “If we take a look at Total Assets held by the US federal Reserve […] we can see that similar to 2019 we are getting close to re-testing the 2W 200 ema and 2W RSI and LMACD are in the same spot they were before the Fed ended QT.”
He anticipates that balance sheet levels could mirror 2019 conditions within the next 126 days—leading up to around the Federal Reserve’s June policy meeting, give or take a couple of weeks. Should the Fed’s total assets hit that threshold, he believes it will confirm the timing he has been advocating.
While Kevin references the broader altcoin market, Dogecoin, in particular, features in his strategic outlook. Last week, he underscored the importance of overall market fundamentals and chart positioning when it comes to purchasing DOGE: “If #BTC holds up and Macro Economic Data and Monetary policy adjust then you just got your last opportunity to buy Dogecoin relatively cheap. A lot of factors at play and lots of work to do. But the risk reward at this level is superb given the circumstances.”
At press time, Dogecoin traded at $0.17.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
