Major Developments for the Week
Bitcoin surges 11% in best September in a decade: Is $85K next?
Celo surges 29%: what are the key factors behind the price jump?
TIA surges 26% as Celestia secures $100M for network growth
ETH/BTC shows bearish trend; could a turnaround still happen by EOY?
Bitcoin heads for a Q4 all-time high despite election year jitters
Kamala Harris pushes for the U.S. to lead in blockchain and digital assets in her economic vision
China’s former finance minister calls crypto a key player in the digital economy
U.S. Bitcoin ETFs see record inflows, hitting their highest since June
FTX creditors frustrated as payouts dwindle under new plan
U.S. Bitcoin ETFs rake in $1.1B, highest since mid-July
Bitcoin Surges 11% in Best September in a Decade: Is $85K Next?
Bitcoin is closing September on a high, with an 11% gain that makes it the best-performing September since 2013.
Historically, September has been a bearish month for Bitcoin, often ending in losses, but 2024 has defied this trend. The positive performance is driven by several factors, including global monetary easing, institutional investments, and increasing demand.
This momentum has raised expectations for a strong Q4, with October—dubbed “Uptober”—historically one of the best months for Bitcoin, showing an average gain of 22%.
Past performance is not an indication of future results
The above chart compares BTC’s average price for each September from 2020 to 2024, with red and blue bar colors representing market sentiment, highlighting the significant growth in BTC’s average 2024 price, where the sentiment shifted to bullish, compared to previous years where the market remained bearish. What this indicates remains to be seen.
Another key factor boosting Bitcoin’s outlook is the weakening U.S. dollar, with the Dollar Index (DXY) nearing its lowest point in over a year. As the dollar and Bitcoin typically move in opposite directions, the dollar’s decline is further supporting a bullish case for Bitcoin.
Analysts and traders are now eyeing a potential price target of between $75K to $85 for the near future, assuming these trends continue.
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Celo surges 29%: key factors behind the price jump
Celo has seen a notable price surge of approximately 29.24% in the past week, driven by several key factors. Positive comments from Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin have boosted investor confidence. Additionally, the growing adoption of stablecoins like USDC and USDT on the Celo network has increased its utility. The transition of Celo into an Ethereum Layer 2 blockchain has enhanced scalability and integration, drawing more interest. Lastly, increased network activity, such as a rise in daily active addresses and stablecoin transactions, has further supported the price jump.
TIA Surges 26% as Celestia Secures $100M for Network Growth
Celestia, a modular blockchain project, has seen a surge in its token (TIA) price following a successful $100 million fundraising round led by Bain Capital Crypto. The funds will support the development of the TIA network, focusing on scaling to 1-gigabyte blocks, significantly increasing data throughput. This move could position Celestia as a major player in blockchain scalability, with ambitions to exceed the transaction capabilities of systems like Visa. TIA’s market cap now stands at $1.4 billion, ranking it as the 64th largest crypto project.
ETH/BTC shows bearish trend; could a turnaround still happen before year’s end?
The ETH/BTC pair has been underperforming significantly, with Ether (ETH) hitting a three-and-a-half-year low against Bitcoin (BTC) in mid-September 2024. While Bitcoin has been relatively stable, Ethereum has struggled to maintain upward momentum, and analysts are divided on whether ETH will rebound. Some suggest that a potential reversal could happen if key resistance levels are breached, but ETH remains well below its all-time highs.
The long-term ETH/BTC chart shows a symmetrical triangle pattern, signaling indecision between buyers (bulls) and sellers (bears). Both moving averages are sloping downward, indicating bearish momentum, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI)—a tool that measures whether an asset is overbought or oversold—is near the oversold zone.
The price could rally if it breaks above the triangle’s resistance. However, if the pair continues lower, it could face further declines. Although market sentiment for ETH remains mixed, with predictions showing an 85% chance that ETH will not hit new highs in 2024, some analysts see this as a possible buying opportunity if resistance levels are overcome.
Election Year No Barrier: Bitcoin Poised for Q4 All-Time High
Bitcoin is expected to maintain its strong performance through the fourth quarter of 2024, regardless of the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. Historically, Bitcoin has performed well in election years, with past Q4s often seeing gains of over 50%.
This trend, driven by economic instability and increasing U.S. debt, is likely to continue. Analysts expect the ongoing U.S. debt and deficit issues, which remain unaddressed by both political parties, to boost Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against economic instability.
Data shows that Bitcoin historically thrives in Q4 due to these macroeconomic factors, regardless of election outcomes. In previous election cycles, Bitcoin has seen gains of more than 50% during Q4, with the 2020 halving resulting in a massive 168% price increase.
Adding to this bullish sentiment is the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cuts, which make traditional assets less attractive and boost Bitcoin’s narrative as “digital gold.” Investors are watching closely, with many betting on Bitcoin’s role as “digital gold” in uncertain times. Should these trends continue, Bitcoin could become even more attractive to institutional investors, especially if the broader economy faces further volatility.
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This communication is for information and education purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice, a personal recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation to buy or sell, any financial instruments. This material has been prepared without taking into account any particular recipient’s investment objectives or financial situation and has not been prepared in accordance with the legal and regulatory requirements to promote independent research. Any references to past or future performance of a financial instrument, index or a packaged investment product are not, and should not be taken as, a reliable indicator of future results. eToro makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the content of this publication.
