Bitcoin climbed above $107K as traders react to the fact that the Israel-Iran ceasefire is actually holding for now.
Oil prices have dropped back to pre-conflict levels, and that’s giving investors a reason to feel optimistic again.
But don’t get too comfortable – there’s always something to worry about. And the focus is now on NATO vs. Russia.
According to QCP Group, European defense officials are warning that a war could break out in the next five years.
Russia’s been producing more weapons than it needs for the war in Ukraine, upgrading its nuclear facilities in Kaliningrad, and setting up more military bases near European borders;
In response, NATO countries agreed to increase defense spending from 2% to 5% of GDP by 2035.
QCP says stuff like this is changing how investors think about risk, because what used to be seen as a worst-case scenario is now just part of the normal.
And for that, it’s getting harder for markets to figure out what anything is really worth.
So, the big picture is a mess. However, the short term… nah, it’s also messy.
CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha pointed out this:
1/ Binance Open Interest (OI) has increased
Binance’s OI jumped above 6%. The last two times this happened (on May 26 and June 10), Bitcoin either dipped or started going sideways afterward.
That’s because rising OI means more money’s getting pumped into futures, mostly by traders using leverage = usually a sign of growing excitement or speculation.
And when things get more speculative, the market becomes more fragile. Leveraged traders don’t have much room for error, so even a small price drop can spook them into closing positions, which adds extra selling pressure.
2/ Long-term holders are slowing down
A stat that shows what long-term holders are up to – the LTH Net Position Realized Cap – dropped from over $57B to just $3.5B.
This means they’re not accumulating like before, and some might be taking profits after the recent price rally.
And since these are usually the chill and strategic people, seeing them cool off is something worth noting.
So, where does that leave us?
There’s no clear sign that Bitcoin’s about to crash. Don’t worry.
But a dip or some sideways movement wouldn’t be surprising.
Analyst IT Tech suggests watching these price levels:
👉 $108.25K → a break above it could trigger a squeeze toward $109.5K+;
👉 $106.4K → a drop below it could be followed by a local pullback.
