Bitcoin Magazine
Is the 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Over? Rational Root Explains Why This Time Might Not Be Different
In a wide-ranging conversation, Bitcoin Magazine Pro’s lead analyst Matt Crosby sat down with on-chain cycle expert Rational Root to explore the pressing question on many investors’ minds: Are Bitcoin’s historic four-year cycles still intact, or is institutional adoption fundamentally altering Bitcoin’s long-established rhythm?
The discussion dives into on-chain metrics, ETF flows, market psychology, and corporate accumulation—all central to understanding whether Bitcoin’s next big move is delayed, dampened, or still ahead.
On-Chain Market Position: Not Overheated Yet
According to Rational Root, the Bitcoin market is far from cycle exhaustion.
“We’re only like 0.25… standard deviations above the short-term cost basis… the previous cycle top… we reached four standard deviations above…”
This key metric—the average acquisition price of recent market entrants—serves as a proxy for overheated conditions. Root argues this mild positioning suggests we are still in bullish territory.
Structured Climb vs. Parabolic Hype
Root pointed out that the current cycle is forming a much more stable structure compared to past ones:
“We’ve seen two of those spikes with both the ETF approval and the election… a structured channel is forming… since 2023… we’ve been kind of moving up.”
Matt Crosby noted that the more orderly trend could be a byproduct of institutions, suggesting this may be a new phase for Bitcoin that suppresses extreme volatility in both directions.
ETF Flows: The New Whale
Rational Root has closely tracked the massive demand from ETFs:
“Just ETFs alone are already like 3.5x… we also still have a lot of other sources of demand… stacking happening in the Bitcoin treasury companies…”
This inflow is significantly more than the current daily issuance of 450 BTC. The ETF demand, combined with corporate treasuries and long-term holders, has fundamentally shifted Bitcoin’s supply dynamics.
Human Psychology Still Dominates
Despite the rise of institutional players, Root remains grounded in behavioral patterns:
“People were talking about lengthening/shortening cycles… every cycle… we’ve been talking about that in all previous cycles… it wasn’t different.”
He reiterated that Bitcoin’s cycles remain driven by collective psychology—greed, fear, and FOMO. So far, data from the current cycle appears to rhyme closely with those from 2017 and 2021.
Entering the Euphoria Phase?
Referencing his well-known Bitcoin Spiral Chart, Root noted:
“We’re actually really approaching that thrill and euphoria phase… it’s very exciting… the next six months are not going to be boring.”
Historically, this phase precedes market peaks, though Root was careful not to offer timing guarantees, citing the potential for institutional influence to stretch out the cycle.
Bitcoin Treasury Companies: Cheat Code or Risk?
On the rise of Bitcoin treasury companies like MicroStrategy, MetaPlanet, and the Blockchain Group, Root shared:
“It’s really… a bet on fiat money to go down and Bitcoin to go up… fundamentally it’s sustainable.”
He highlighted the strategic use of debt by these firms, leveraging fiat debasement to accumulate Bitcoin. He also addressed prior skepticism stemming from the 2022 cycle failures (e.g., Celsius, BlockFi), but now views the current players as fundamentally sound.
Price Projections and Cycle Timing
Pressed for a forecast, Rational Root said:
“I’ve always said… between 140 and 240… I don’t think we’re going to cross like a half a million Bitcoin this cycle.”
He cited macro risks and the potential for extended consolidation but reiterated that, so far, the current cycle remains within historically normal boundaries.
Are We Entering a New Era?
While both Root and Crosby acknowledge the changing nature of Bitcoin’s market participants, they agree that the foundational cycle mechanics still apply—for now.
“If everything starts flashing red… probably not a bad opportunity to maybe lock in a little bit of profit.” — Matt Crosby
Root added:
“Definitely check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro… I definitely treat you as a colleague… it’s the Bitcoin journey that we’re after.”
Final Word
Bitcoin’s market structure is evolving—but not radically. While institutional demand, passive flows, and corporate accumulation are reshaping behavior, the cycle’s emotional core remains familiar. Investors should prepare for continued upside, but also stay vigilant for signs of overextension.
For more deep-dive research, technical indicators, real-time market alerts, and access to a growing community of analysts, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.
This post Is the 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Over? Rational Root Explains Why This Time Might Not Be Different first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Mark Mason.
