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Over the past 12 days, Dogecoin (DOGE) has endured a sharp decline, shedding more than 40% of its value. After trading above $0.48 on December 8, the meme-inspired cryptocurrency briefly sank to $0.2638 by December 20, prompting a wave of speculation about its near-term direction. The backdrop to this drawdown has been the broader crypto market’s response to US Federal Reserve policy signals, with the latest downturn largely attributed to more hawkish projections from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
While the Fed’s December meeting delivered a widely expected 25 basis point rate cut, the real shock came from the revised dot plot, which pointed to fewer future cuts than previously anticipated. The market had hoped for three rate cuts in 2025, but the FOMC’s guidance now leans toward just two, suggesting a more cautious approach amid persistent inflationary pressures. This shift in outlook triggered broad-based selling in risk-on assets, including cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin (BTC) dropped below $93,000, and altcoins -20% drawdowns. Within 24 hours, a staggering $1.17 billion in long positions were liquidated across the crypto markets.
How Low Can Dogecoin Go?
A number of prominent analysts have weighed in on DOGE’s retreat, framing it within the context of historical patterns and macro-level drivers. Technical analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) highlights the significance of previous cycles. He notes that, historically, Dogecoin has experienced multiple significant corrections en route to its cycle tops, stating that the current pullback—similar to past 50% drawdowns—could be part of a normal bull market structure rather than a sign of systemic weakness.
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According to Kevin, “In the previous cycle Dogecoin had three separate 50% corrections on the way to its cycle top. If we tap macro structured support and the macro golden pocket right below that would be roughly a 45% correction from the high which based off historical analyses would be just enough for us to resume uptrend. If we lose $0.26 cents on a weekly close then I would start to seriously worry about this market structure but until then this should be treated as a normal bull market pullback.”
Kevin also underscores Bitcoin’s influence over the altcoin landscape. Instead of focusing solely on DOGE’s standalone chart, he encourages traders to “not be hyper focused on altcoin charts” to gauge the market’s macro direction. BTC remains the pivotal asset whose price action often dictates sentiment across the broader crypto space.
Kevin illustrated this point by sharing a BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap, suggesting the market may seek to flush out lower liquidity pockets before any meaningful rebound. “Let’s go snag all that liquidity at $95K-90K and then we can start talking about a bounce. Until then no reason to over analyze. From a fundamental standpoint the market is overreacting to what Powell is saying and not actually listening to him. Just because rate cut projections,” he writes.
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Balo (@btcbalo), another crypto analyst, reinforces the importance of the $0.26 level. He points out that Dogecoin “still has a few days to save the weekly,” indicating that a weekly close above this threshold would maintain a structurally sound market framework.
A successful defense of the $0.26 zone could set the stage for a renewed uptrend, potentially targeting a return to $0.42—what Balo views as a critical pivot point. Reclaiming $0.42 would, in his words, allow DOGE to “teleport” toward the $4 mark, a scenario he associates with a full-scale bull run recovery.
A third analyst, CEO (@Investments_CEO), brings a historical perspective, suggesting that DOGE’s current pattern aligns with its multi-year cyclical nature. “DOGE appears to be aligning with its typical 3-4 year cycle. Zoom out,” he states.
The analyst refers to DOGE’s price action following its previous cycle fractal. Back in 2021, Dogecoin experienced its first major run-up approaching its all-time high (ATH). After a 50% correction, DOGE resumed its rally, broke through the ATH, and then entered price discovery. As mentioned earlier, this scenario could align with the $0.26 price target.
At press time, DOGE traded at $0.26919.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
