Dogecoin is currently trading in a falling wedge, eyeing a breakout above $0.219.
A close above $0.22378 could signal a bullish trend reversal.
On-chain activity is rising, boosting the long-term bullish outlook.
Dogecoin (DOGE) has experienced notable turbulence over the past week, with the popular meme coin shedding more than 11% of its value amid wider market volatility.
Although short-term losses have sparked concern among retail traders, technical analysts, and blockchain activity suggest that DOGE may be positioning itself for a much larger move.
DOGE price analysis
Over the past few days, Dogecoin has slipped from a local high of $0.25 to hover around the $0.2161 mark, reflecting a strong pullback after a sustained rally earlier this month.
Despite the apparent weakness, this decline has not invalidated the broader bullish structure that analysts have been tracking over recent months.
On the four-hour chart, DOGE is currently trading within a defined falling wedge pattern, which is widely regarded as a bullish formation when confirmed with a breakout.
Highlighting this setup, an analyst on X has noted that Dogecoin’s price has compressed between descending resistance near $0.219 and support just above $0.212, forming a tightening range.
4h $DOGE FW pic.twitter.com/aBCf1y5jaO
— #333kByJuly2025 (@CarpeNoctom) May 17, 2025
The analyst’s chart also points to Ichimoku Cloud metrics that show the price hovering within the equilibrium zone, suggesting that the current pause may precede a larger directional move.
The high-confluence support zone between $0.212 and $0.214, bolstered by the Ichimoku Span B, has already prompted intraday rebounds, hinting at strong buyer interest near that level.
Meanwhile, resistance at the upper wedge boundary coincides with the Kijun-sen (baseline) around $0.225, creating a well-defined ceiling that needs to be breached for bullish momentum to resume.
Dogecoin price outlook
If Dogecoin manages a decisive four-hour candle close above $0.219, Ali Martinez believes that the coin could quickly target the previous supply zone between $0.24 and $0.26.
This is a major area of resistance for #Dogecoin $DOGE. A breakout here could spark a new bull run!
Don’t wait for the breakout; instead, prepare for it! Go to @coinexcom, sign up using my referral link https://t.co/73n8mW9Y5p, and join me in this trade. pic.twitter.com/yh52WFBHQt
— Ali (@ali_charts) May 15, 2025
However, a breakdown below the $0.205 support level would likely open the door to steeper declines, potentially revisiting the April pivot low near $0.185.
From a medium-term perspective, Dogecoin’s weekly chart paints a more optimistic picture, especially as the token recently closed above the Bull Market Support Band.
This band, defined by the 20-week simple moving average and a two-sigma envelope, has acted as a major barrier since early February, with recent price action flipping it into provisional support.
Analyst Cantonese Cat has emphasised the significance of this breakout, arguing that a second consecutive weekly close above $0.22378 would confirm a broader trend reversal.
Despite the pullback from $0.25, the midline of the Bollinger Bands, which overlaps with the Bull Market Support Band, remains the primary pivot point for sustained bullish follow-through.
Adding further weight to this outlook, long-term chart patterns suggest Dogecoin has already completed a breakout above a multi-year descending resistance in late 2023.
According to analyst Javon Marks, this structural change, marked by higher highs and higher lows, confirms a bullish reversal from the extended bear market that began after its 2021 peak.
$DOGE and a +174% climb to its first target at $0.6533 continues to be in the cards 🃏… https://t.co/7Jt82s0jLy
— JAVON⚡️MARKS (@JavonTM1) May 18, 2025
Marks also pointed out that the recent correction found support at $0.16, establishing a higher low that strengthens the case for a continued uptrend.
Based on these developments, Marks has maintained a projected price target of $0.6533, representing a potential 174% increase from current levels.
He also noted that Dogecoin could eventually revisit its previous all-time high of $0.74 and even extend gains toward $1.25 if momentum builds and market sentiment improves.
Still, another layer of resistance remains between $0.25 and $0.26, a zone that has consistently capped Dogecoin’s price since December 2024, according to analyst Ali Martinez.
Repeated failures to break through this level earlier in the year underscore the importance of a confirmed move above it for any sustained upward move to take hold.
While the technical picture remains mixed in the short term, Dogecoin’s on-chain data adds another bullish signal to the overall outlook.
Blockchain analytics platform IntoTheBlock reported a surge in user engagement, with new addresses jumping by over 102% and active addresses climbing by more than 111% in just one week.
Additionally, zero-balance addresses, often associated with increased turnover and new activity, rose by more than 155%, reflecting renewed interest from both traders and casual users.
This resurgence in network activity coincides with a broader market rally and suggests that Dogecoin’s recent price drop may not reflect weakening fundamentals.
Should the price break above the $0.219 and $0.26 resistance zones, it may well trigger the next major rally toward the $0.65 target outlined by bullish analysts.
But until then, both traders and long-term holders will be watching key support and resistance levels closely, waiting for the signal that confirms Dogecoin’s next major move.
