Bitcoin (BTC) Faces Downward Pressure Amid Middle East Conflicts

Amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a notable shift in market dynamics, according to Glassnode. The cryptocurrency broke out of its recent trading range, moving to the downside, with the market displaying signs of reduced overheating. As uncertainties linger, demand appears weakened, and the risk of further downside correction remains significant.

Market Overview

Bitcoin’s descent was marked by a brief dip to a low of $98,000 over the weekend. Spot market activity showed mild stabilization, though trading volumes remain on the lower end of historical norms. Futures markets saw a slight dip in open interest, while funding rates stayed stable, suggesting cautious sentiment without a full retreat from risk. The Perpetual CVD indicator turned sharply negative, indicating aggressive sell-side flows, which may signal rising market fragility.

In the options market, open interest maintained levels above historical highs, reflecting sustained speculative interest. However, volatility spread and 25-Delta Skew indicate a sentiment recalibration, with less aggressive pricing of tail-risk, yet a continued preference for calls over puts. Meanwhile, ETF net flows remained positive but subdued, with trade volumes slightly declining. ETF MVRV ratios stayed elevated, indicating ongoing unrealized profits among institutional investors.

On-Chain and Off-Chain Indicators

On-chain fundamentals saw a slight decline, with active address counts contracting marginally and on-chain volume and fee metrics remaining range-bound, indicating restrained user engagement. Capital Flows indicators such as Realized Cap change and Hot Capital Share showed muted improvement, while the STH/LTH Supply Ratio continued its downtrend, suggesting persistent holding behavior among investors.

Profit/Loss metrics entered a cooling phase, with the percent supply in profit declining to 91% and NUPL softening. This reflects a tempered sentiment as investors reassess market expectations. The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio also dropped sharply, suggesting a slowdown in profit-taking pressure.

Future Outlook

The market appears to be moving away from its previously overheated state. However, with demand showing signs of weakness and facing renewed uncertainties, the risk of further downside correction remains elevated. A meaningful recovery may require renewed investor conviction and fresh inflows from both retail and institutional participants.

For further insights, please refer to the detailed analysis on Glassnode.

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